SmartSignal Report, Market Overview, and Big Picture
The Numbers
SmartSignal long term figures remain solid: 10.1% compound annual growth over fifteen years, 8.6% over five years, and 16.0% over the past twelve months.
Shorter term results, however, are effectively flat: -1.1% year to date and +8 basis points last month as the system moved to cash.
Market Update
The thirty-year chart shows the market dip into March and the impressive bounce in April.
Source: stockcharts.com
The five year chart below shows the impressive thrust off the bottom at the end of March.
Source: stockcharts.com
The short list of indicators we track suggests continued favorable market conditions for the near term.
Beyond the short-term market action, longer-term structural trends may warrant attention.
The Big Picture: Financial vs. Physical Assets, Past and Future Trends
For most of the last 40 years investors have lived through one of the best environments for financial assets in history. These factors powered tailwinds for stocks and bonds: falling interest rates, globalization, cheap energy, and abundant labor. Financial assets grew not just because companies improved. The entire environment pushed investors toward financial assets.
Many investors now assume that environment represents normal market conditions. Most portfolios reflect that view.
The following observations explore potential shifts in market structure, not as predictions, but as scenarios worth monitoring.
The world may have other plans.
Subtle signs suggest that markets might shift toward real assets and physical systems. Not instead of financial assets but alongside them. Many investors don't perceive this shift yet.
Source: stockcharts.com
Gold provides a clue. Gold has stayed strong despite higher interest rates and a strong dollar. Both typically weaken gold prices. Meanwhile, central banks worldwide have bought gold aggressively. This behavior suggests growing interest in reserve assets outside the traditional financial system (USD and other currencies). The chart below shows gold's sustained strength over the past two decade.
Source: stockcharts.com
Energy provides another signal. The war in Ukraine reminded everyone that energy means more than just a commodity. Energy represents national security and economic stability. Europe quickly discovered that reliable energy infrastructure matters more than many thought.
Even artificial intelligence depends heavily on real-world infrastructure. AI requires enormous electricity and physical plants. Data centers need cooling systems and semiconductors. They need copper and water. Our digital future ironically increases the demand for physical assets.
Source: https://stockcake.com
Meanwhile, widely reported years of underinvestment created supply constraints just as demand rises. The physical world still requires pipelines and power grids, steel and uranium and copper, ports and transportation systems.
Financial assets can still work fine. But the next decade might look different from the last one. Investors who built portfolios entirely around falling rates and endless liquidity may find that physical systems matter more than they expected.
The last generation rewarded financial assets. The next one might increasingly reward productive physical systems.
SmartSignal monitors opportunity signals across both financial assets and commodities. The methodology adapts to changing market regimes rather than assuming any one asset class will dominate indefinitely.
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Important Disclosures
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal.
The performance shown combines two different kinds of data. Results from January 2003 through December 2024 reflect backtested application of the SmartSignal methodology to historical price data. Results after January 2025 reflect actual signals delivered to subscribers during that period.
Backtested performance has inherent limitations. It does not represent actual trading. Backtested results benefit from hindsight and do not reflect the impact of trading costs, execution slippage, market liquidity, or the psychological pressures of investing real money during live conditions. For these reasons, backtested performance may differ materially from actual results. Individual subscriber results may also vary based on execution timing, account composition, and other factors.
TenHundred Co., its officers, employees, and partners may hold positions in the ETFs or securities referenced by the SmartSignal methodology, and may trade those positions without notice. TenHundred Co. reserves the right to modify or discontinue the methodology at any time, and past performance data may not reflect the current methodology.
Growth Guardian Investor publishes systematic investing education and methodology training under the publisher's exclusion to the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. We do not provide personalized investment advice. Subscribers make their own investment decisions.
Full Disclaimers Statement on www.gginvestor.com.